The cannibalisation effect

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The Secretary of State told Parliament that we could expect a drop-off in good-causes income of 4% a year up to 2009, because of lottery players switching from the main game to the Olympic game. She added: ‘For the three years between 2009 until the games, the impact could be greater – up to 11 or 12%.’ That’s 12% a year and she is referring here to the £410m contribution that will be taken from the general good causes pot rather than any expectation that the main Lotto game will haemorrhage players to the Olympic games after 2009. Her figures are based on research and estimates from the lottery regulator (NLC), about the likely level of switching between games, as against attracting new players. These figures represent a rough decline in the current distribution pot of £53.5m a year. Not massive, but enough to cause concern to any stand-alone distributor. Paradoxically the voluntary sector will be cushioned against the impact of this cut by the merger with NOF, leaving boards such as Heritage and Sport England more vulnerable.